This week Russian President Vladimir Putin attended a session of the Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi, during which he warned that Russia may revoke its ratification of the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) because it has still not been ratified by the US.
"Experts say that with new weapons it is necessary to make sure the warhead will work without failures, and that (nuclear) tests should be carried out. I am not ready to say now whether we need to conduct (nuclear) tests or not, but it is possible to mirror the actions of the United States when they signed but did not ratify (the CTBT), while we signed and ratified it, in principle. But this is a question for the deputies of the State Duma. Theoretically, it is possible to withdraw the ratification, if we do this, it will be quite enough."
One day later, Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's envoy to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) announced that Moscow WILL revoke its ratification of the treaty.
Also this week, Russia issued several NOTAMS (Notices to Mariners) for the Barents Sea, one of which encompasses an area used in the past for nuclear tests. The set of NOTAMS may be part of Russia upcoming annual strategic nuclear exercises.
Just last week, CNN published an analysis of satellite images showing increased activity at nuclear test sites in Russia, the US, and China. According to the report, the satellite images from the past three to five years show new tunnels under mountains, new roads and storage facilities, as well as increased vehicle traffic coming in and out of the sites. One of the analysts on the project, retired US Air Force Col. Cedric Leighton, reviewed the images of the three powers’ nuclear sites and came to the following conclusion:
“It’s very clear that all three countries, Russia, China and the United States have invested a great deal of time, effort and money in not only modernizing their nuclear arsenals, but also in preparing the types of activities that would be required for a test."
The U.S. is also preparing to conduct subcritical nuclear tests as soon as 2027 using a process referred to as "tickling the dragon's tail."
Concern over Russia’s potential return to nuclear testing increased this past summer when Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited the Novaya Zemlya nuclear test site to evaluate "official activities and the fulfillment of tasks for the purpose of special units and units deployed on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago. The last nuclear test at the complex was in 1990.
On Feb. 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin, along with declaring Russia’s suspension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, instructed the defense ministry to “make everything ready for Russia to conduct nuclear tests.”
“If the United States conducts tests, then we will,” Putin said. “No one should have dangerous illusions that global strategic parity can be destroyed.”
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