Russia is no longer only fighting in Ukraine. Drones, sabotage and electronic warfare are testing NATO’s defenses and political resolve. The next disruption may arrive as a grounded airport, a darkened grid or a bank unable to process payments.
That is hybrid warfare: inflicting damage while complicating attribution and discouraging a collective military response. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warns that Moscow may stage supposedly “accidental” drone or missile strikes to test whether NATO’s Article 5 commitment is practical or theoretical. Danish intelligence says Russia is accepting greater risks, including sabotage that could cause casualties.
Incidents on the Flank
The incidents are accumulating. Germany blamed Russia for the failed August drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport. On Sept 13, a Russian drone struck a Ukrainian passenger train two kilometers from Poland. NATO fighters downed a drone over Lithuania two days later. Warsaw this week called a fire at a Starlink ground station sabotage, although responsibility remains unconfirmed. These developments follow the unprecedented mass Russian drone incursion into Poland on Sept 10, 2025.
False Signals
Electronic warfare is also reaching civilian life. Lithuanian officials say Russia’s expanded spoofing network in Kaliningrad can transmit false navigation signals roughly 450 km (280 miles), threatening aviation and shipping across the region. Lithuanian authorities also accuse Moscow of using spoofing to divert Ukrainian strike drones into NATO airspace.
Undersea cables present another target. Reuters reported that British, Norwegian and American forces disrupted a Russian cable-sabotage rehearsal near Svalbard this spring. Newsweek Poland reported this week that the CIA warned Warsaw about potential cable attacks that could disrupt banking.
Article 5’s Gray Zone
The United States has direct exposure through its European bases, deployed forces and communications networks. Article 5 obliges allies to assist a member suffering an armed attack, while leaving each government to determine its response. NATO says significant hybrid attacks can meet that threshold. Moscow’s apparent calculation is that repeated, ambiguous incidents will divide the alliance before it acts.
The homeland-security implications extend beyond treaty obligations. European air parcel fires were linked to an alleged Russian plan targeting flights to the United States and Canada. American aviation, shipping and emergency services depend on satellite navigation vulnerable to the same methods of interference seen in Europe. Transatlantic cables carry communications essential to American commerce and security.
For fusion centers and infrastructure operators, watch the methods: drones near airports, arson at logistics facilities, GPS anomalies, unexplained cable failures and recruited proxies. The lesson is to recognize techniques that could appear here and strengthen the systems they target.
Three Days at Home
Preparedness is also moving directly into European homes. Ireland began a nationwide mailing of about 2.2 million “Be Emergency Ready” booklets on Sept 21st. The advice includes non-perishable food, two to three litres of drinking water per person daily, medicines, a radio, power banks and essential documents. It explicitly addresses cyberattacks and supply disruptions alongside severe weather.
France, Poland and the Netherlands advise households to prepare for at least three days of disruption. Poland also urges residents to locate their nearest shelter. Germany recommends building food and water reserves toward ten days. A September report from Clingendael and Erasmus researchers recommends expanding Dutch food reserves to eight days, held at home or nearby, a research recommendation that goes beyond the government’s current 72-hour guidance.
These preparations serve a clear purpose: keeping households functioning when power, communications or supply chains fail. In the context of hybrid warfare, that resilience also limits an attacker’s ability to spread disruption and fear. Three days of supplies is the civilian half of deterrence.
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