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April 9, 2022
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Nearly 20 AH-64D Apache Longbow helicopters assigned to 1-3rd Attack Battalion, 12th Combat Aviation Brigade, arrive at Lielvarde Military Airfield, Latvia, Feb. 24, 2022. Elements of the 12 CAB departed Germany for Lithuania and Latvia to conduct training with NATO allies in support of Saber Strike 22. 12 CAB trains and remains a constant and credible U.S. Army aviation force in support of allies and partners and the stability and security of Europe. - ALLOW IMAGES

US Readies Long-Term European Security Ramp-Up
General Milley: War in Ukraine Could Last Years

April 9, 2022
What You Need To Know

America's highest-ranking and most senior military officer this week told lawmakers that the world is becoming more unstable and the "potential for significant international conflict between great powers is increasing, not decreasing." His comments came Tuesday during testimony before the House Armed Services Committee.

The general called Russia's invasion of Ukraine "the greatest threat to peace and security of Europe, and perhaps the world, in my 42 years of service in uniform."

General Milley was asked about the need to deploy additional forces to Europe’s eastern flank, where NATO allies are worried that they may be Russia’s next target. He responded that his advice would be to create permanent bases, but instead of stationing troops abroad for the normal 2-3 year assignment (family often in tow), the same effect can be achieved by rotating forces through the region.

“I believe that a lot of our European allies, especially those such as the Baltics or Poland and Romania, and elsewhere — they’re very, very willing to establish permanent bases. They’ll build them, they’ll pay for them.”

Milley said that while there are no decisions yet, "there’s a possibility, if not a probability” of increasing U.S. troops strength in Europe, and that need could be filled by rotational forces.

Milley also stated that Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine, and its ongoing demands that the U.S. and NATO reduce troops and arms in European countries along Russia’s borders, signal a lengthy conflict in the region extending beyond Ukraine.

“I do think this is a very protracted conflict and I think it’s at least measured in years. I think that NATO, the United States, Ukraine and all of the allies and partners that are supporting Ukraine, are going to be involved in this for quite some time.”

NATO: Finland and Sweden Welcome To Join

As a result of the invasion of Ukraine, public support and political momentum for Finland joining NATO has reached an all-time high, raising the very real possibility that the alliance's borders with Russia could extend by more than 830 miles within a matter of months.

NATO member states and dates of accession. - ALLOW IMAGES

On Wednesday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters that the military alliance would welcome Finland and Sweden into its ranks with open arms if they decided to apply.

On Friday, Finland's government websites came under cyberattack as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was addressing Finnish parliament.

During his address, Zelensky stated that "the war of Russia against Ukraine is decisive not only for the future of our country and our nation, but all those who have a common border with Russia. Just like you 83 years ago, Ukraine has the bravery to defend itself."

Readers are again reminded that late February, Russia threatened military action against Sweden and neighboring Finland should either join NATO. The threat was followed up two days later by sending four Russian jets into Swedish airspace. Swedish media reports two of these jets were armed with nuclear weapons. The airspace violation is reported to have lasted only about one minute.

This week, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned that if Finland and Sweden joined NATO then Russia would have to "rebalance the situation" with its own measures.

Ukraine's FM Is Not Screwing Around

Also this week, an extraordinary press conference was held just outside NATO headquarters early Thursday morning prior to a ministerial meeting. Behind one of the microphones was Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs for Ukraine. When asked about the different types of responses he is receiving to requests for additional arms shipment to Ukraine, Kuleba responded:

"Yes, there are two ways of approaching the issue of weapons supplies. The first one is when you do not want to supply anything, you come up with the argument: we don't have to do it because it will pull us or NATO as a whole into the war. The second approach is completely different. This line of thinking is completely different. We will provide Ukraine with all necessary weapons so that we, neither we nor NATO as a whole, will have to fight in this war, because Ukrainians will do it for us. I think the deal that Ukraine is offering is fair. You give us weapons, we sacrifice our lives and the war is contained in Ukraine. This is it."

Invasion Progress

Below is a conflict map as of April 8 based on open source reporting. Compare this map with that of last week.

Open source Ukraine conflict map as of April 8, 2022. - ALLOW IMAGES

AlertsUSA warns that the conflict in Eastern Europe has potential to get much worse, and spillover into neighboring NATO nations is a possibility. Caution is urged if traveling to Europe in the coming months.

AlertsUSA continues to monitor the domestic and international threat environment around the clock and will immediately notify service subscribers, via SMS messages to their mobile devices, of new alerts, warnings and advisories or any developments which signal a change the overall threat picture for American citizens as events warrant.


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SMS ALERTS FROM THIS WEEK
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4/6 - General blackout strikes Puerto Rico as a result of a fire and explosions at the Costa Sur Power Plant Complex in Penuelas. Damage assessed as significant.

4/3 - AlertsUSA monitoring response to shooting incident, Michael-Ann Russell Jewish Community Center, Aventura, Miami Beach, FL. One dead, one injured.

 
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====> CLICK TO WATCH VIDEO <====


The Myth of the Missing Cyberwar - ALLOW IMAGES

Commentary / Analysis / Research

April 9, 2022

The Myth of the Missing Cyberwar

After Russia invaded Ukraine, many observers initially expected cyberattacks to steal the limelight as a major instrument in Russia’s arsenal. But after a month of fighting, a host of prominent scholars and analysts of cyberconflict have reached the opposite conclusion. Russia’s activities in cyberspace, they claim, have been paltry or even nonexistent. They have dismissed the role of cyber-operations, variously proposing that digital preparations for the invasion in Ukraine never occurred, were haphazard or lacked any real impact, or were mere continuations of Russia’s long-term cyber-activity against Ukraine that fell below the threshold of outright war.

This is a dangerous misdiagnosis.

~ READ MORE HERE ~

Will the U.S. Lead or Continue to 'Lose Ground'?

The world is seeing Vladimir Putin's clear plan to reestablish the Russian Empire. It also is hearing rumblings from Asia about restoration of a Chinese dynasty, and in the Middle East, a return to when Persia -- now an extremely different Iran -- dominated the region.

For any of these empires to expand, they need to take control of other states or groups of people. Those states can either be overrun and annexed, or they can be controlled and remain smaller, more manageable political units. Today, Russia in Ukraine is the focus, but the aspirations of China and Iran must not be ignored.

~ READ MORE HERE ~

What Is China Learning from the Ukraine War?

Operation Desert Storm was a turning point in modern Chinese military history. As military planners with the People’s Liberation Army watched U.S. and allied forces make short work of the world’s fourth-largest military (on paper), equipped with many of the same systems as the PLA, it became obvious that China’s quantitatively superior but qualitatively lacking massed infantry would stand no chance against the combination of modern weaponry, C4ISR, and joint operations seen in Iraq. The result was new military concepts and over two decades of often-difficult reforms, which produced the modern, far more capable, “informationized” PLA of today.

Today, the PLA is no doubt closely observing its Russian contemporaries in Ukraine as they under-perform in multiple areas, from failing to take key targets or claim air supremacy to running low on fuel and supplies and possibly experiencing morale collapse, and surely taking away lessons that will shape its own future.

~ READ MORE HERE ~


Fleet and Marine Tracker Map as of April 4, 2022.  - ALLOW IMAGES
 
USNI Fleet and Marine Tracker
April 9, 2022

These are the approximate positions of the U.S. Navy’s deployed carrier strike groups and amphibious ready groups throughout the world as of April 4, 2022 based on U.S. Navy, public data provided by the U.S. Naval Institute, and open source reporting. In cases where a CSG or ARG is conducting disaggregated operations, the chart reflects the location of the capital ship.


The USS Abraham Lincoln transits the South China Sea, April 1, 2022.  - ALLOW IMAGES
 
World News Roundup
April 9, 2022

AMERICAS

Puerto Rico power outage plunges over 1 million into darkness
Pentagon training a small number of Ukrainians in the U.S. on new weapons
Biden to unveil US, UK, & Australia in new trilateral security hypersonic pact
No easy answer for ramping up Stinger production, Pentagon No. 2 says
More Javelins for Ukraine amid questions about US supplies
Senate passes bill to clear hurdles in loaning military equipment to Ukraine
Milley says Ukrainians using land mines 'effectively
Top U.S. military officer: Ukraine conflict will likely last years
Intel agencies accelerate use of commercial space imagery to support Ukraine
Allies up military support amid emerging atrocities in Ukraine
What Russia’s military setbacks mean for US defense spending and exports
Navy quietly declares aircraft carrier Ford operational
First Look at the Navy’s next 'Doomsday Plane,' the EC-130J TACAMO
DoD seeks ‘huge jump’ in budget for hypersonic test facilities
Here’s the new name of the US Air Force’s next-gen nuke
Air Force delays hypersonic missile program after flight test ‘anomalies’
US seizes yacht owned by oligarch with close ties to Putin
Costa Rican maverick Chaves makes pitch to opposition after presidency win
Deadly Ecuador prison riot as gang seeks 'total control'
As Panama tightens visa rules, Cubans brace for tough journeys

EUROPE

Finland's NATO application could be imminent
Russia says it would have to 'rebalance' if Finland and Sweden join NATO
Finland joining NATO means 'destruction of their country': Russian lawmaker
NATO Chief Says Finland, Sweden welcome to apply to join
Kremlin: If Poland hosts US nukes, Russia will station nukes on western border
Russia says Ukraine presented 'unacceptable' draft peace deal
NATO expects Russia to plan a 'concentrated attack' to take over Donbas
United Nations suspends Russia from human rights council
Russia accuses Ukraine of backpedaling in peace talks
Czech Republic the first NATO country to send tanks to Ukraine
Vladimir Putin 'wants to build pro-Russia empire from Vladivostok to Portugal'
France to expel 35 Russian diplomats after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine
60 elite Russian paratroopers refuse to fight in Ukraine
US, Poland to hold joint military exercises near Ukraine border
Poland signs $4.75 billion Abrams tank deal

MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA

Iran blames U.S. for halt to Vienna nuclear talks
Yemen president cedes powers to council as Saudi Arabia pushes to end war
Yemen warring parties agree two-month truce
US, Iran spar over stalled nuclear talks
Shelling of rebel village in northern Syria kills 4 students
Ukraine war having 'deadly' impact on Arab region, says Blinken
Turkey juggles relationships with Russia, Ukraine amid economic crisis
Three Palestinian militants killed by Israeli forces in West Bank clash
Jordan's Hamzah renounces prince title a year after plot
Mali says over 200 fighters killed in military operation
Nigeria's Kaduna train attack: 168 people still missing
More than a dozen killed in eastern Congo attack
Ghana: Mali's coup leaders not doing better against jihadists
South Sudan rivals agree on unified army command
Zimbabwe: A new hope for the opposition amid fresh repression
Five aid workers kidnapped in Cameroon freed in neighbouring Nigeria
Food crisis in Niger could harm 15% of the population
Kenya will pay fuel subsidies to offset shortage fears

ASIA

N. Korea warns of ‘extermination’ if South Korean army attacks Pyongyang
New satellite imagery shows activity at N. Korean nuclear test site
North Korea is testing ICBMs again. Nuclear weapons may be next
North Korea may plan for nuclear test next week, US envoy says
Australia accelerates missile upgrade program by several years
China's security deal with Solomons raises alarm in pacific
Window for possible PLA attack on Taiwan ‘highly unpredictable’
India to face significant cost if aligned with Russia, US says
Entire Sri Lankan cabinet resigns, social media ban lifted
Sri Lankan president asks opposition to join unity govt amid economic crisis
Imran Khan's fate as Prime Minister to be decided by Pakistan's highest court
Shanghai lockdown: Economy shaken by zero-Covid measures
China calls in military to help test 25 million in locked-down Shanghai
Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam says she won’t seek second term in office
'We will be forced to steal': Taliban bans poppy cultivation


Book - Three Seconds Until Midnight by Dr. Steven Hatfill et al..

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Travel Security Resources

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The U.S. Dept. of State Travel Website is the authoritative federal source for information on the security situation at travel destinations worldwide. With tensions rapidly increasing in most regions, readers planning international travel, even to such common destinations as Canada, Mexico or the Caribbean Islands, are strongly encouraged to research on the security situation at your destination prior to departure.

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The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website is the authoritative federal source for information on current health issues related to specific destinations worldwide. These issues may arise from disease outbreaks, special events or gatherings, natural disasters, or other conditions that may affect travelers’ health.

Foreign Sources of Travel Guidance

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