On nine occasions this week AlertsUSA subscribers were notified via SMS messages to their mobile devices regarding safety and security matters. Four of these alerts were related to the dangerous situation building in Eastern Europe and the rising potential for conflict.
Beginning Wednesday during a press briefing, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby fielded several questions regarding the potential use of U.S. troops to evacuate American citizens from Ukraine. Kirby's response was a refreshing call for personal responsibility:
"If Americans that are in Ukraine heed the warnings that they have gotten from the State Department and from the President himself, there should be no need for the 82nd Airborne to have to assist with evacuation -- and assist in evacuation missions. If Americans that are in Ukraine are paying close attention to the warnings and the advisories that they've gotten and do the right thing, while there's time to do it."
As if reinforcing Kirby's message, the next day AlertsUSA subscribers were notified the State Department issued an update travel advisory for Ukraine, warning that military action may commence at any time and without warning.
"U.S. citizens in Ukraine should be aware that the U.S. government will not be able to evacuate U.S. citizens in the event of Russian military action anywhere in Ukraine. Military action may commence at any time and without warning and would also severely impact the U.S. Embassy’s ability to provide consular services, including assistance to U.S. citizens in departing Ukraine."
It is estimated there are up to 30,000 Americans still in Ukraine.
Early Friday morning, Secretary of State Blinken warned that Russia has sent more forces to its border with Ukraine and could launch an invasion at any time, including during the Beijing Winter Olympics.
Also this week, the US Embassy in Moscow issued a security alert warning of harassment against U.S. citizens, harassment by Russian government security officials, as well as the arbitrary enforcement of local laws.
"Russian officials have unreasonably delayed U.S. consular assistance to detained U.S. citizens and have arrested U.S. citizens on spurious charges, denied them fair and transparent treatment, and have convicted them in secret trials and/or without presenting evidence."
On Friday, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office also issued an updated travel advisory for Ukraine telling U.K. citizens to leave Ukraine while commercial options are still available.
Numerous other nations stretching from Estonia to S. Korea have reduced staffing at their embassies and urged their citizen to get out.
Assessment
AlertsUSA assesses that without ironclad, internationally recognized, long-term guarantees regarding the disposition of Ukraine (such as no NATO membership, no THAAD missiles, no NATO troops, etc..), there is a high probability for conflict in the region, but for reasons not often discussed by western media outlets.
The Setup
In December of 2013, then Asst. Secretary of State for Europe, Victoria Nuland, delivered a presentation at the National Press Club during which she revealed that the U.S. government has invested more than 5 BILLION dollars in helping destabilize the pro-Russian Ukrainian government and to develop democratic institutions and a western-friendly government, all in an effort to bring about Ukraine's entry into the EU, and ultimately, NATO.
Needless to say, this type of meddling poses numerous strategic threats to Russia.
The Reality
In one example, consider the geography of the region. Looking at the map below you will see that the Black Sea is one of only two warm-water access points to the world's oceans in western Russia. All other ports in the North of the country, with the exception of Murmansk near the northeast corner of Finland, are blocked by ice several months out of each year. The only reason Murmansk remains ice free is due to the warm waters of the North Atlantic Current crossing over the top of Norway. In the case of St Petersburg, the waters of the back bay and inlets often become frozen and require icebreakers for passage.
Although 11 time zones in size, more than 75% of Russia's population lives in the western third of the country.
Additionally, the Russian Navy has kept its Black Sea Fleet stationed at the strategically located Sevastopol naval base on the Crimean Peninsula since the late 1700s. In 2010, Russia negotiated an agreement with Ukraine that allowed for the use of the base through 2042 in exchange for discounts on natural gas.
As demonstrated with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 (three days after the Sochi Winter Olympics), Russia simply cannot / will not allow essential access to the world's oceans, or the strategic naval base, to be threatened or used as a method of control. Certainly not without a knockdown, drag out fight. Too much is at stake.
We would be remiss if we did not also play "follow the money" and point out that Ukraine is a critical corridor for natural ga$ pipelines from Russia and the Caspian region into Europe. These pipelines and the product they carry generate significant revenue for Russia (not to mention for Ukraine via transit fees).
With just these few items (there are many more), it is easy to see how Russia is being backed into a corner and forced to act. Their strategic interests and national security are directly threatened.
AlertsUSA continues to monitor the domestic and international threat environment around the clock and will immediately notify service subscribers, via SMS messages to their mobile devices, of new alerts, warnings and advisories or any developments which signal a change the overall threat picture for American citizens as events warrant.