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February 12, 2022
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Russian T-72-B3 main battle tanks in Belarus. - ALLOW IMAGES

USGOV: Invasion of Ukraine Could Come At Any Time
Up To 30,000 Americans Remain

February 12, 2022
Between Feb 9-11, the following related Flash SMS
messages were sent to AlertsUSA subscriber mobile devices:

2/11 - SecState Blinken: Russia continues massing forces near Ukraine, invasion could begin at any time, incl during the Beijing Olympics. US Embassy to cont drawdown.

2/10 - State Dept issues new travel advisory for Ukraine, warns military action may commence at any time & without warning. US citizens urged to depart now. See email.

2/9 - US Embassy Russia issues security alert warning US citizens of harassment, incl by gov officials, and increased tensions along the border w/ Ukraine. See email.

2/9 - DoD encourages Americans in Ukraine to heed ongoing advisories / warnings from State Dept which urge departing now using commercial transportation options.

What You Need To Know

On nine occasions this week AlertsUSA subscribers were notified via SMS messages to their mobile devices regarding safety and security matters. Four of these alerts were related to the dangerous situation building in Eastern Europe and the rising potential for conflict.

Beginning Wednesday during a press briefing, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby fielded several questions regarding the potential use of U.S. troops to evacuate American citizens from Ukraine. Kirby's response was a refreshing call for personal responsibility:

"If Americans that are in Ukraine heed the warnings that they have gotten from the State Department and from the President himself, there should be no need for the 82nd Airborne to have to assist with evacuation -- and assist in evacuation missions. If Americans that are in Ukraine are paying close attention to the warnings and the advisories that they've gotten and do the right thing, while there's time to do it."

As if reinforcing Kirby's message, the next day AlertsUSA subscribers were notified the State Department issued an update travel advisory for Ukraine, warning that military action may commence at any time and without warning.

"U.S. citizens in Ukraine should be aware that the U.S. government will not be able to evacuate U.S. citizens in the event of Russian military action anywhere in Ukraine. Military action may commence at any time and without warning and would also severely impact the U.S. Embassy’s ability to provide consular services, including assistance to U.S. citizens in departing Ukraine."

It is estimated there are up to 30,000 Americans still in Ukraine.

Early Friday morning, Secretary of State Blinken warned that Russia has sent more forces to its border with Ukraine and could launch an invasion at any time, including during the Beijing Winter Olympics.

Also this week, the US Embassy in Moscow issued a security alert warning of harassment against U.S. citizens, harassment by Russian government security officials, as well as the arbitrary enforcement of local laws.

"Russian officials have unreasonably delayed U.S. consular assistance to detained U.S. citizens and have arrested U.S. citizens on spurious charges, denied them fair and transparent treatment, and have convicted them in secret trials and/or without presenting evidence."

On Friday, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office also issued an updated travel advisory for Ukraine telling U.K. citizens to leave Ukraine while commercial options are still available.

Numerous other nations stretching from Estonia to S. Korea have reduced staffing at their embassies and urged their citizen to get out.


AlertsUSA assesses that without ironclad, internationally recognized, long-term guarantees regarding the disposition of Ukraine (such as no NATO membership, no THAAD missiles, no NATO troops, etc..), there is a high probability for conflict in the region, but for reasons not often discussed by western media outlets.

The Setup

In December of 2013, then Asst. Secretary of State for Europe, Victoria Nuland, delivered a presentation at the National Press Club during which she revealed that the U.S. government has invested more than 5 BILLION dollars in helping destabilize the pro-Russian Ukrainian government and to develop democratic institutions and a western-friendly government, all in an effort to bring about Ukraine's entry into the EU, and ultimately, NATO.

Needless to say, this type of meddling poses numerous strategic threats to Russia.

The Reality

In one example, consider the geography of the region. Looking at the map below you will see that the Black Sea is one of only two warm-water access points to the world's oceans in western Russia. All other ports in the North of the country, with the exception of Murmansk near the northeast corner of Finland, are blocked by ice several months out of each year. The only reason Murmansk remains ice free is due to the warm waters of the North Atlantic Current crossing over the top of Norway. In the case of St Petersburg, the waters of the back bay and inlets often become frozen and require icebreakers for passage.

Although 11 time zones in size, more than 75% of Russia's population lives in the western third of the country.

Additionally, the Russian Navy has kept its Black Sea Fleet stationed at the strategically located Sevastopol naval base on the Crimean Peninsula since the late 1700s. In 2010, Russia negotiated an agreement with Ukraine that allowed for the use of the base through 2042 in exchange for discounts on natural gas.

As demonstrated with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 (three days after the Sochi Winter Olympics), Russia simply cannot / will not allow essential access to the world's oceans, or the strategic naval base, to be threatened or used as a method of control. Certainly not without a knockdown, drag out fight. Too much is at stake.

We would be remiss if we did not also play "follow the money" and point out that Ukraine is a critical corridor for natural ga$ pipelines from Russia and the Caspian region into Europe. These pipelines and the product they carry generate significant revenue for Russia (not to mention for Ukraine via transit fees).

With just these few items (there are many more), it is easy to see how Russia is being backed into a corner and forced to act. Their strategic interests and national security are directly threatened.

AlertsUSA continues to monitor the domestic and international threat environment around the clock and will immediately notify service subscribers, via SMS messages to their mobile devices, of new alerts, warnings and advisories or any developments which signal a change the overall threat picture for American citizens as events warrant.


2/7 - AlertsUSA monitoring response to reports of multiple people shot within Fred Meyer grocery store in Richland, WA. Heavy police presence. Add'l alerts as warranted.

2/8 - VPOTUS' husband evacuated from presentation at Dunbar High School in Washington, DC due to unspecified security issue. Secret Service leads investigation. Monitoring..

2/8 - According to DC Public Schools, the security incident requiring evacuation of Second Gentleman was a credible bomb threat. AlertsUSA monitoring..

2/9 - DC Metro Police responding to multiple bomb threats around the District including DCPS and DC Charter Schools. Schools currently being evacuated. Monitoring..

2/9 - Buffalo NY Police confirm two people shot at McKinley High School (1500 Elmwood Ave), including a student. Shooter at large. AlertsUSA monitoring..

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Color-enhanced scanning electron micrograph of a cell infected with SARS-CoV-2 particles, isolated from a patient sample. SARS-CoV-2 virus particles are the small, roughly-spherical structures, found on the surface of the cell, which is exhibiting elongated, rod-shaped cell projections. Image captured at the NIAID Research Facility (IRF) in fort Detrick, Maryland. Credit: NIAID - ALLOW IMAGES

Coronavirus Quick Hits

February 12, 2022


According to data provided by the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, as of Feb 11 there have been more than 918,000 COVID - attributed deaths reported across the country since the pandemic began.

That said, in January CDC Director Rochelle Walensky admitted that 75% of COVID deaths in the U.S. occurred in people who had at least four comorbidities, drawing the distinction between dying from COVID-19 versus dying with COVID-19.

Across the nation, laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalizations are rapidly declining.


COVID-19 infections are decreasing in Canada. As of Feb 7, more than 35,000 COVID - attributed deaths have been reported across the country since the pandemic began.


This week Brazil leads in new reported COVID-19 deaths, followed by Mexico and Argentina. As of Feb 8, more than 1,615,000 COVID - attributed deaths have been reported across the region since the pandemic began.


New deaths continue decreasing across Europe. Russia still leads the region in COVID-related fatalities, followed by Italy and France. As of Feb 9, more than 2,025,000 COVID - attributed deaths have been reported across the region since the pandemic began.


WHO chief scientist: pandemic has not ended
Nearly a dozen states ditch COVID mask mandates
Fauci: U.S. heading out of "full-blown pandemic phase"
Under pressure to ease up, Biden weighs new virus response
Vancouver residents receive flyers blaming Jews for pandemic
Early Covid mutations' from a Chinese lab fuelling leak theory
Panic buttons sought by hospitals as pandemic brings violence spike
Africa transitioning out of pandemic phase of COVID: WHO
Sweden ends COVID-19 testing as pandemic restrictions lifted
Pandemic learning has children lagging behind


Heart-Disease Risk Soars After COVID — Even With A Mild Case (Nature)


According to the CDC's Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) between mid-December 2020 and February 4, 2022, more than 1,103,000 adverse events have been reported following COVID19 vaccinations. As it is estimated that only 1% of adverse events are recorded into the system, these numbers could be significantly higher.

NOTE: Reports of adverse events to VAERS following vaccination, including deaths, do not necessarily mean that a vaccine caused a health problem.

Current VAERS reports (U.S. only) related to COVID-19 vaccines incl:

Deaths: 10,747
Hospitalizations: 53,135
Urgent Care: 93,815
Anaphylaxis: 2,317
Bell's Palsy: 3,076
Miscarriages: 1,619
Heart Attacks: 5,218
Myo/Pericarditis: 4,941

World Health Organization
Centers for Disease Control (U.S.)
Johns Hopkins CSSE (Interactive map)

Scene from the chaotic Afghanistan evacuation. - ALLOW IMAGES

Commentary / Analysis / Research

February 12, 2022

Left Behind: Risch Report On The Afghanistan Evacuation

U.S. Senator Jim Risch (R-Idaho), ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, today published a report entitled “ Left Behind: A Brief Assessment of the Biden Administration’s Strategic Failures during the Afghanistan Evacuation ,” to give an overview of what went wrong in the planning and execution of the Biden Administration’s hazardous withdrawal from Afghanistan.

“While there is substantial disagreement about the policy to leave Afghanistan, Americans share outrage over how the United States withdrew last August, and what that failure has done to America’s standing in the world,” said Risch. “My report describes how the Biden Administration’s failure of duty allowed for a quick Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and a botched withdrawal that left hundreds of Americans and tens of thousands of Afghan partners behind. The United States will have to deal with the fallout of this failure for years to come, so it is imperative that we mitigate the strategic implications to ensure we do not repeat mistakes.”


The U.S. Is Ignoring Latin America. China Isn’t

Argentine president Alberto Fernández was not in Beijing simply to take in the Winter Games, or just to lay a wreath at the memorial of Chairman Mao Zedong in Tiananmen Square. Instead, Fernández was on hand alongside Chinese leader Xi Jinping to announce that his country would officially be joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).


Do Not Open Nord Stream 2

The Russian threat... was very clear -- that Russia would then be able to shut off its gas to Europe in the middle of winter [by means of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline], if it chose to, as a form of blackmail, at which point the US might then be expected to save Europe from its own deal....

The warnings to Europe went unheeded.


Fleet and Marine Tracker Map as of February 7, 2022.  - ALLOW IMAGES
USNI Fleet and Marine Tracker
February 12, 2022

These are the approximate positions of the U.S. Navy’s deployed carrier strike groups and amphibious ready groups throughout the world as of Jan 31, 2022 based on U.S. Navy, public data provided by the U.S. Naval Institute, and open source reporting. In cases where a CSG or ARG is conducting disaggregated operations, the chart reflects the location of the capital ship.

Soldiers maneuver an M113 armored personnel carrier during Allied Spirit in Hohenfels, Germany, Jan. 31, 2022. The exercise is designed to enhance NATO and key partner interoperability and readiness. - ALLOW IMAGES
World News Roundup
February 12, 2022


Ontario declares state of emergency in response to convoy protests
US sending 3,000 more troops to Poland amid new invasion warnings
Senators: CIA has secret program that collects American data
Bird flu found on poultry farm in Indiana 30,000 birds culled
Ottawa 'freedom convoy' forces factory shutdowns as Trudeau condemns
Biden urges Trudeau get even tougher with freedom convoy
Freedom Convoy: US offers Canada support to end truck protest
Havana syndrome has ‘dramatically hurt’ morale, US diplomats say
Trial against Bolivia’s former president Jeanine Anez suspended
Factory workers in Haiti go on strike to demand higher wages
The fear and lawlessness behind Mexico's journalist murders
How inflation makes the US military poorer overnight


Putin-Biden phone talk scheduled for Saturday, February 12
No breakthrough at Berlin talks on Ukraine conflict, Russia says
Nuclear capable B-52 bombers back in Europe as Russia tensions build
UK prepares 1,000 troops in case of refugee crisis if Ukraine invaded
Meet Ukraine’s gun-toting military girls on the front line
Ukraine tensions: Russia accused of sea blockade
'I didn't kill anyone,' says key suspect at Paris attacks trial
France launches terrorism probe into attack on park rangers in Benin
Oskarshamn 3 nuclear plant in Sweden shut down due to 'fuel damage'
Russia holds drills as diplomacy over Ukraine pushes on in Moscow, Berlin
Russia launches Belarus military drills as West fears Ukraine invasion
Don't underestimate West's resolve, Germany's Scholz tells Russia
UK’s Johnson cites ‘a dangerous moment’ in Ukraine crisis
Inspired by Ottawa protests, French join ‘Freedom Convoy’ bound for Paris


UN: Build on Islamic State chief’s death to thwart recruits
Violence erupts at Syrian camp for ISIS families
Islamic State out to prove it's more than its leader
US: Civilian toll in Syria raid may be higher than thought
Biden under pressure as Iran nuclear talks resume
Intercepted drone shrapnel injures 12 at Saudi Abha airport
Civilian deaths and injuries in Yemen have doubled since UN left
US to help UAE replenish missile defence interceptors: General
UN: Iraq makes final payment to Kuwait for 1990 invasion restitution
Abbas accused of power grab after Palestinian appointments
BBC accuses Iran of escalating harassment of Persian journalists
UN: Aid operations in Tigray 'largely reduced or suspended'
Libya's parliament names new PM, sparking another test for unity gov
UN voices ‘concern’ over Burkina Faso, but stops short of ‘coup’ label
Sudanese return to streets rallying against military coup
Tunisian president to replace Superior Council of the Judiciary
EU reveals €150 billion investment plan for Africa
Africa embraces Huawei technology despite security concerns
Nigeria cracks down on illegal oil refineries to curb pollution


Al Qaeda, Islamic State reconstituting in Afghanistan: US official
Pakistan’s ‘good Taliban-bad Taliban’ strategy backfires
Moon: New N Korea nuclear, ICBM testing would trigger instant crisis
Book: Trump says he is in touch with North Korea's leader Kim
US, Asia allies meet to deepen bulwark against China
US and China lock horns over Ukraine at United Nations
China suspends beef imports from Lithuania in dispute over Taiwan
New Zealand police arrest 120 anti-COVID-19 mandate protesters
Heroin use in Kabul grows under Taliban, say locals

AmRRON - A Nationwide Emergency Communications Network for Preppers & Patriots - ALLOW IMAGES

Book - Three Seconds Until Midnight by Dr. Steven Hatfill et al..

Alert! Symbol - ALLOW IMAGES

Travel Security Resources

Department of State Seal - ALLOW IMAGES

The U.S. Dept. of State Travel Website is the authoritative federal source for information on the security situation at travel destinations worldwide. With tensions rapidly increasing in most regions, readers planning international travel, even to such common destinations as Canada, Mexico or the Caribbean Islands, are strongly encouraged to research on the security situation at your destination prior to departure.

Active USGOV Travel Notices
Worldwide Caution

Active USGOV Travel Advisories
Alphabetical Country List
Dynamic Map

Other USGOV Travel Resources
Traveler's Checklist
Smart Traveler Enrollment Prog (STEP)
Travelers with Special Considerations
Travel to High-Risk Areas
Faith-Based Travel Information
Information for Women Travelers
Cruise Ship Passengers
Students Abroad
Your Health Abroad
Driving and Road Safety Abroad

Overseas Security Advisory Council Logo - ALLOW IMAGES

The Department of State’s Overseas Security Advisory Council (OSAC) provides a variety of resources to enhance the safety and security of the U.S. private sector businesses and organizations operating abroad.


The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website is the authoritative federal source for information on current health issues related to specific destinations worldwide. These issues may arise from disease outbreaks, special events or gatherings, natural disasters, or other conditions that may affect travelers’ health.

Foreign Sources of Travel Guidance

Canadian Flag - ALLOW IMAGES  

Australian Flag - ALLOW IMAGES  


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