The potential negative implications of America’s departure from Afghanistan for Western security and U.S. credibility are stark and will likely take years, if not decades, to overcome. In the meantime, the United States is likely to be challenged more aggressively on multiple fronts by adversaries who see weakness, a lack of American resolve, and—like sharks that smell blood in the water—an opportunity to strike out against U.S. interests, as well as by allies and friends who see themselves as more vulnerable and less certain of American security guarantees.
There are those who believe this to be an overly pessimistic assessment and that the widespread negative reaction to the chaotic U.S. departure from Afghanistan will only strengthen American determination and commitment to prove the naysayers wrong. But deterrence depends on what others believe, not on what we think they should believe, and it is difficult to imagine that others see Afghanistan as a shining example of U.S. resolve.
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